TONY SEBA & DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES.

Bonanzadriver

Anyone else here been keeping up with this guy?

I've read most of what I can find from this fella as well as watched virtually every youtube video out on him.

I really appreciate his, logical, practical, facts based presentations.  Doesn't go down the CO2 is killing the earth rabbit hole & I appreciate that.


https://tonyseba.com/in-the-news/


His explanations and predictions on major disruption in the past and what's to come are spot on.

His 12 areas that he says will be Major areas of disruption over the nest few years.....


1.  Sensors / Internet of Things  IoT
2.  3D Printing, both home based and commercial
3.  Machine Learning / A.I.
4.  Robotics
5.  Autonomous Cars
6.  Electric Vehicles
7.  Solar PV
8.  Electricity Storage
9.  Mobile Internet & Cloud
10. Big Data / Open Data
11. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles / Nano Satellites
12. eMoney


I'd be interested in others thoughts on these and any other areas of disruption.

Again, please keep the left leaning man made global warming rhetoric out of this.  This is not a political post, it's a technical & business one.


Thanks

Dino

motie2

Dino,

I suggest the 13th "major area of disruption" will be the disappearance of many blends and brands of pipe tobacco.....

Mr. Seba appears to be another in the rogues' gallery of "visionary" Silicon Valley entrepreneurs determined to save us from ourselves, while building enormous fortunes.

He also does not smoke a pipe.

Of course, that's just my opinion: I've been wrong before......

Bonanzadriver

motie,

if you go back far enough on youtube you can find videos of his making forecasts for the times we're in right now.  If anything he has been conservative on timelines and the cost of things.

One of the things that caught my eye was when he showed examples of major disruptive technologies in the past.  The automobile is a great one.

His forecast models show that we will probably see an electric car with a 250 mile range selling for $12,000 to $15,000 by 2020 or 2022.  That's a brand new car and that's without subsidies.

That will be an absolute game changer.  Coupled with the orders of magnitude fewer moving parts and a 10X cheaper per mile expense, it just won't make any sense to drive anything else.

I spent 26 years in the automotive industry on the retail and consulting side of things.  It is my personal opinion that we will see this industry turned on its head.


ymmv

motie2

But he still hasn't begun pipe smoking......

Bonanzadriver

Let's add that to our "to do" list.  Just gotta find someone that has access maybe? 

Londy3

There is something significant that you're missing. All the behaviors have changed. The world as we know it is now upside down. In the early 90s technology replaced jobs but created a ton of new ones. Today technology continues to replace jobs through automation but not creating new jobs nearly as much as it used to.  Because of the technological changes taking place human behavior is adapting. For example, look at the millennial generation. They have zero desire to buy a new car it's not even a thought in their head. The market for this age segment is down north of 30% and increasing. But why? It seems automakers can't figure it out. Look at Ford for example. They have been very Innovative including much technology in new cars yet it has not attracted buyers in that age bracket. But why?  Let's look at the behavior behind it. When I was in high school the biggest goal we had was to get our keys. This was huge because it was not only our independence but also our identity as guys. It really made a difference on what we drove, it set us apart. The millennials see things a lot differently then I did back when I was in high school. They do not want to take on the burden of ownership of a vehicle which would also mean they have to get a job that they don't want being a barista at Starbucks to pay for a car they didn't want to begin with. They have more options than I did. There's Lyft, Uber, public transportation ride share a scooter bicycle it doesn't make sense to have a long-term commitment on a depreciating item when there's other options that are next to free or on demand. Which brings me to my next Point. Millennials are more interested in paying for high-ticket items on demand is needed. You look at living expenses that can be shared the expenses are divvied up, we have Community Gardens, and other shared services that they can partake in as needed. There's no need for these kinds of commitments which also means you don't need the low end paying jobs. The differentiator in the millennial is that their cell phone is their primary source of entertainment, identity, and Independence. They're willing to pay 300 plus dollars a month but they're not sharing that with anyone. Automation is also contributing to the Game Changer in the Auto industry. Look at what over is doing in logistics. Who would have thought the largest media Outlet in the world doesn't make a sentence of contribution to the content? Who would have thought the largest taxi service in the world doesn't own a car in their Fleet? I've been many predictions over the last 25 years and I've been mostly right. I do see a future where we don't really need to have a car as you're used to it. It doesn't make any sense. There are so many things in play right now, so many technical advancements and changes in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and it just scratched the surface while making a massive dent. As Bob Dylan has said, "These Times Are A-Changin.". This is my two cents off the cuff while puffing on wild hair in my Savinelli di piazza spanga.

Londy3

There is something significant that you're missing. All the behaviors have changed. The world as we know it is now upside down. In the early 90s technology replaced jobs but created a ton of new ones. Today technology continues to replace jobs through automation but not creating new jobs nearly as much as it used to.  Because of the technological changes taking place human behavior is adapting. For example, look at the millennial generation. They have zero desire to buy a new car it's not even a thought in their head. The market for this age segment is down north of 30% and increasing. But why? It seems automakers can't figure it out. Look at Ford for example. They have been very Innovative including much technology in new cars yet it has not attracted buyers in that age bracket. But why?  Let's look at the behavior behind it. When I was in high school the biggest goal we had was to get our keys. This was huge because it was not only our independence but also our identity as guys. It really made a difference on what we drove, it set us apart. The millennials see things a lot differently then I did back when I was in high school. They do not want to take on the burden of ownership of a vehicle which would also mean they have to get a job that they don't want being a barista at Starbucks to pay for a car they didn't want to begin with. They have more options than I did. There's Lyft, Uber, public transportation ride share a scooter bicycle it doesn't make sense to have a long-term commitment on a depreciating item when there's other options that are next to free or on demand. Which brings me to my next Point. Millennials are more interested in paying for high-ticket items on demand is needed. You look at living expenses that can be shared the expenses are divvied up, we have Community Gardens, and other shared services that they can partake in as needed. There's no need for these kinds of commitments which also means you don't need the low end paying jobs. The differentiator in the millennial is that their cell phone is their primary source of entertainment, identity, and Independence. They're willing to pay 300 plus dollars a month but they're not sharing that with anyone. Automation is also contributing to the Game Changer in the Auto industry. Look at what Uber is doing in logistics. Who would have thought the largest media Outlet in the world doesn't make a sentence of contribution to the content? Who would have thought the largest taxi service in the world doesn't own a car in their Fleet? I've been many predictions over the last 25 years and I've been mostly right. I do see a future where we don't really need to have a car as you're used to it. It doesn't make any sense. There are so many things in play right now, so many technical advancements and changes in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and it just scratched the surface while making a massive dent. As Bob Dylan has said, "These Times Are A-Changin.". This is my two cents off the cuff while puffing on wild hair in my Savinelli di piazza spanga.

Bonanzadriver

Londy,

I, he, didn't miss that.  Look @ #5 on the list. 

Autonomous cars are steaming their way into the industry, hence my closing sentances...

"I spent 26 years in the automotive industry on the retail and consulting side of things.  It is my personal opinion that we will see this industry turned on its head."


We're on the same page bud. 

Londy3

I was also speaking in broader terms on how the technology impacts human behavior. It's not just the auto industry, it's most every industry!

motie2

Is that true of the industries behind pipe manufacturing and pipe-tobacco production?

Londy3

There is something significant that you're missing. All the behaviors have changed. The world as we know it is now upside down. In the early 90s technology replaced jobs but created a ton of new ones. Today technology continues to replace jobs through automation but not creating new jobs nearly as much as it used to.  Because of the technological changes taking place human behavior is adapting. For example, look at the millennial generation. They have zero desire to buy a new car it's not even a thought in their head. The market for this age segment is down north of 30% and increasing. But why? It seems automakers can't figure it out. Look at Ford for example. They have been very Innovative including much technology in new cars yet it has not attracted buyers in that age bracket. But why?  Let's look at the behavior behind it. When I was in high school the biggest goal we had was to get our keys. This was huge because it was not only our independence but also our identity as guys. It really made a difference on what we drove, it set us apart. The millennials see things a lot differently then I did back when I was in high school. They do not want to take on the burden of ownership of a vehicle which would also mean they have to get a job that they don't want being a barista at Starbucks to pay for a car they didn't want to begin with. They have more options than I did. There's Lyft, Uber, public transportation ride share a scooter bicycle it doesn't make sense to have a long-term commitment on a depreciating item when there's other options that are next to free or on demand. Which brings me to my next Point. Millennials are more interested in paying for high-ticket items on demand is needed. You look at living expenses that can be shared the expenses are divvied up, we have Community Gardens, and other shared services that they can partake in as needed. There's no need for these kinds of commitments which also means you don't need the low end paying jobs. The differentiator in the millennial is that their cell phone is their primary source of entertainment, identity, and Independence. They're willing to pay 300 plus dollars a month but they're not sharing that with anyone. Automation is also contributing to the Game Changer in the Auto industry. Look at what over is doing in logistics. Who would have thought the largest media Outlet in the world doesn't make a sentence of contribution to the content? Who would have thought the largest taxi service in the world doesn't own a car in their Fleet? I've been many predictions over the last 25 years and I've been mostly right. I do see a future where we don't really need to have a car as you're used to it. It doesn't make any sense. There are so many things in play right now, so many technical advancements and changes in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and it just scratched the surface while making a massive dent. As Bob Dylan has said, "These Times Are A-Changin.". This is my two cents off the cuff while puffing on wild hair in my Savinelli di piazza spanga.

Londy3

There is something significant that you're missing. All the behaviors have changed. The world as we know it is now upside down. In the early 90s technology replaced jobs but created a ton of new ones. Today technology continues to replace jobs through automation but not creating new jobs nearly as much as it used to.  Because of the technological changes taking place human behavior is adapting. For example, look at the millennial generation. They have zero desire to buy a new car it's not even a thought in their head. The market for this age segment is down north of 30% and increasing. But why? It seems automakers can't figure it out. Look at Ford for example. They have been very Innovative including much technology in new cars yet it has not attracted buyers in that age bracket. But why?  Let's look at the behavior behind it. When I was in high school the biggest goal we had was to get our keys. This was huge because it was not only our independence but also our identity as guys. It really made a difference on what we drove, it set us apart. The millennials see things a lot differently then I did back when I was in high school. They do not want to take on the burden of ownership of a vehicle which would also mean they have to get a job that they don't want being a barista at Starbucks to pay for a car they didn't want to begin with. They have more options than I did. There's Lyft, Uber, public transportation ride share a scooter bicycle it doesn't make sense to have a long-term commitment on a depreciating item when there's other options that are next to free or on demand. Which brings me to my next Point. Millennials are more interested in paying for high-ticket items on demand is needed. You look at living expenses that can be shared the expenses are divvied up, we have Community Gardens, and other shared services that they can partake in as needed. There's no need for these kinds of commitments which also means you don't need the low end paying jobs. The differentiator in the millennial is that their cell phone is their primary source of entertainment, identity, and Independence. They're willing to pay 300 plus dollars a month but they're not sharing that with anyone. Automation is also contributing to the Game Changer in the Auto industry. Look at what Uber is doing in logistics. Who would have thought the largest media Outlet in the world doesn't make a sentence of contribution to the content? Who would have thought the largest taxi service in the world doesn't own a car in their Fleet? I've been many predictions over the last 25 years and I've been mostly right. I do see a future where we don't really need to have a car as you're used to it. It doesn't make any sense. There are so many things in play right now, so many technical advancements and changes in artificial intelligence, Big Data, and it just scratched the surface while making a massive dent. As Bob Dylan has said, "These Times Are A-Changin.". This is my two cents off the cuff while puffing on wild hair in my Savinelli di piazza spanga.

Woodsman

Google- did you know,and select the 2017 you tube version.